{"id":168,"date":"2012-08-02T17:48:17","date_gmt":"2012-08-02T17:48:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.up.edu.pe\/blogs\/csanborn\/Lists\/EntradasDeBlog\/ViewPost.aspx?ID=23"},"modified":"2022-10-13T06:04:17","modified_gmt":"2022-10-13T06:04:17","slug":"ollanta-humala-year-one-passing-muster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/ollanta-humala-year-one-passing-muster\/","title":{"rendered":"Ollanta Humala Year One: Passing Muster?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u200b\"Ollanta<\/p>\n

[blockquote source=\u00bbOllanta Humala Tasso, Message to the Nation, July 28, 2012″]<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have made a lot of mistakes, we are learning within the Government. \u00a0We wanted to move faster on our desired reforms, but understand that everything has a process\u00bb \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n

[\/blockquote]<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Public speaking is not the Peruvian President\u00b4s forte. \u00a0 While Ollanta Humala\u00b4s first Message to the Nation in 2011 was criticized for unnecessarily provoking the opposition, this year\u2019s address was criticized for not being provocative enough. \u00a0 Pundits from all sides charged that he talked too long but said too little, presenting a\u00a0laundry<\/a>\u00a0list\u200b<\/a>\u00a0of proposals from his Cabinet members rather than a central vision of his own. The once-incendiary nationalist was also slammed for being too boring, too technical, and lacking in\u00a0\u201csoul\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Last year Humala responded to critics with a prolonged\u00a0cure of silence\u200b<\/a>,\u00a0letting his Prime Minister and party leaders do the talking. \u00a0But after one year in office, three Cabinet turnovers, rising social protest and falling approval ratings, it was time for the President to face the Nation. \u00a0Looking beyond the stilted delivery, does Humala pass muster?<\/p>\n

In fact, this government has delivered on core promises to maintain economic growth, raise the minimum wage and increase social spending. \u00a0While the pace of private investment has slowed due to the world economy, growth has remained around 6%, driven by strong public investment and domestic demand.\u00a0\u00a0Through rising tides, more formal sector jobs and expanded public assistance programs, the official poverty level declined another 3% this year, from 30.8% to 27.8%.<\/p>\n

This is a first year record any leader would envy. \u00a0So why so much protest? \u00a0 The answer lies partially in the President, and in the weak political system in which he operates.\u00a0Both factors in turn impede progress towards addressing a root cause of discontent: the fundamentally unequal distribution of wealth and opportunity that persists in this society.<\/p>\n

If \u201csocial inclusion<\/a>\u201d, the main slogan of this administration, is understood as giving\u00a0people an equal chance for participation in society, then Peru has a long way to go. \u00a0The country ranks poorly\u00a0on the World Bank\u2019s\u00a0Human Opportunity Index\u00a0<\/a>for Latin America, which measures inequality of opportunity in basic services for children — the extent to which the playing field is equal at the start. \u00a0This includes access to safe water, electricity and sanitation, as well as parents\u00b4 education and income. \u00a0Using a multidimensional approach that includes health, education and living conditions,\u00a0Enrique\u00a0V\u00e1squez<\/a>\u200b estimates that nearly 40% of the population remains poor, and up to 81% in rural areas, a situation that the new\u00a0Ministry\u00a0of Social Inclusion<\/a>\u00a0is well aware of. \u00a0Access to justice and security are also limited to a small minority. And Peru\u00b4s rural indigenous communities are at the very end of the line.<\/p>\n

Last year, in an article titled\u00a0Liderar un Pa\u00eds Rico<\/em><\/a>\u00a0(Leading a Rich Country), I argued that the major challenge for this administration would be precisely that \u2013 leadership. \u00a0Although Humala was an inexperienced politician, one hoped that his autonomy from entrenched interests would enable him to rally citizens around a more audacious reform agenda, and that 22 years in the military might give him the courage to carry it out. I also cited two areas in which bold leadership was urgent: management of Peru\u00b4s natural resources, and overhaul of its educational system. \u00a0On both issues, however, this administration has fallen short of expectations.<\/p>\n

All that Glitters? \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Peru is a world leader in minerals exports, but the expansion of large-scale mining into new territories since the 1990s has also been a leading source of conflict. \u00a0The government is increasingly dependent on the tax revenue this brings in, while\u00a0many remote communities\u00a0where mines operate have not felt the benefits of growth, and they have undergone unsettling changes in their natural environment, lifestyles and power structures. \u00a0Most mineral-exporters\u00a0face similar challenges, yet\u00a0those with more established states and political systems \u2013 such as Chile, Canada and Australia — have been able to address these problems more directly.<\/p>\n

Minerals today constitute 60% of Peruvian exports and 14.5% of national GDP, up from 5% a decade ago. \u00a0The industry contributes 25% of total tax revenues and more than half of all income taxes. \u00a0 Although world minerals prices in the short run are expected to remain strong, reliance on them to stoke public spending is cause for concern, especially since the volume of production has stagnated in recent years. \u00a0 As economist\u00a0Claudia Cooper stressed in a recent\u00a0forum<\/a>, policymakers have been unable to expand the tax base and seek more sustainable sources of income, preferring to push forward the more than US $41 billion in new mining investments projected over the next few years.<\/p>\n

In Peru a mechanism called the mining canon requires the central government to transfer half of the income tax paid by mining firms back to the regions where the mines are located. \u00a0 Industry leaders initially favored this as a means to win local peace, but the result has been the opposite; more canon means more conflict. \u00a0Local politicians are unable to spend wisely the enormous rents pouring into their coffers, leading to considerable waste, distortion of local economies, and fractious competition over the spoils. \u00a0Even\u00a0industry-supported studies<\/a>\u00a0recognize that benefits from mining in the regions where they operate have gone disproportionately to the wealthy.<\/p>\n

This so-called \u201cextractivist\u201d path has continued under Humala. \u00a0As a candidate he repeatedly criticized the industry in regions where sensitivities to the local impacts of mining are acute. \u00a0But once in office he shifted tack, insisting that new investment in this sector was necessary to fund social programs. \u00a0 While this may be true, the abrupt change generated resentment among key constituencies as well as regional and local authorities who had supported his candidacy.<\/p>\n

Humala\u00b4s lack of political skill has contributed to the tension. \u00a0This year he did little to rally Congress or bring regional authorities on board,\u00a0helping them to manage the rents\u00a0they receive. \u00a0 And he avoided rather than embraced public debate on critical issues inherent in this model, including how to\u00a0strike the right balance between mineral exploitation and conservation,\u00a0and improve state capacity to regulate environmental impacts. \u00a0Of the roughly 250 conflicts monitored monthly by the\u00a0Public Defender<\/a>, 60% are attributed to socio-environmental concerns.<\/p>\n

The inability to lead on these issues was epitomized in the\u00a0conflict over Conga<\/a>, a $5 billon gold and copper project in the northern department of Cajamarca whose majority owner is Newmont Mining. \u00a0Protests against the megaproject, which initially proposed to\u00a0eliminate four alpine lakes, became a lightening rod for broader indignation over \u00a0Humala\u00b4s\u00a0turnabout. \u00a0The President insisted it go forward, then dispatched others to figure out how. \u00a0After\u00a0two environmental ministers, two prime ministers and\u00a0three\u00a0foreign technical experts\u200b<\/a>\u00a0could\u00a0not appease local opposition,\u00a0he sent in\u00a0the Army, and after five people died in violent clashes, he sent\u00a0an\u00a0Archbishop<\/a>. \u00a0Yet neither the Bible nor the bayonet offer real solutions to this and other natural resource\u00a0conflicts percolating around the country.<\/p>\n

Will this situation improve in the years ahead? \u00a0 There is certainly room for hope.\u00a0Humala\u00b4s third Cabinet \u2013 named last week \u2013 signals a return to civility, as former Justice Minister and human rights lawyer Juan Jimenez moved into the Premier\u2019s spot. \u00a0A conflict resolution unit within his office will be headed by\u00a0Vladimir Huaroc<\/a>, former President of Jun\u00edn, a region where mining has been the main activity for 150 years. \u00a0Interestingly, in that area the $2.2 billionToromocho<\/a>\u00a0copper project, owned by Chinalco, is moving fairly smoothly.<\/p>\n

The government is also moving to implement a Law of Prior Consultation with Indigenous and Native Peoples, vetoed by a prior administration that had violent clashes with Amazonian natives over extractive activity in their lands. In terms of revenue transparency, this year Peru became the first country in the Americas to comply with the high standards set by the\u00a0Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)<\/a>. \u00a0Humala\u00b4s new \u201claundry list\u201d includes measures aimed at reforming the national public investment system (SNIP) and the civil service, both seen as obstacles to effective use of public revenues. \u00a0Yet economists like Cooper worry that fiscal dependency on mining makes it difficult to undertake structural reforms in sectors such as health or education, which require long term spending commitments.<\/p>\n

The Kids are not All Right<\/strong><\/p>\n

Education should be a primary means for equalizing opportunities in society. \u00a0Demand for it in Peru has led to nearly universal coverage at the primary level, closure of the gap between boys and girls, and a boom in private services at all levels. \u00a0Yet the poor quality of schools serving the majority of children is simply alarming, and social and ethnic differences appear to be getting worse.<\/p>\n

A government evaluation in 2010 revealed that just 28% of Peruvian second graders comprehend what they read, and just 14% can resolve math problems at their age level. In the international PISA exam, Peruvian students rank 64th of 66 countries in reading and second to last in science. \u00a0While the problem is system-wide, reading achievement is 25% higher in private schools than public, and 28% higher in urban areas (SNI 2012<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Within this context, there are over one million indigenous children of school age in Peru, but one in three does not attend classes and 73% lag behind their age group. \u00a0 These children have a legal right to bilingual intercultural education, but the majority do\u00a0not get it, and few indigenous kids develop reading capacity in their native tongue: just 2% of Aymara, 5% of Quechua and 3,2% of Awajun (V\u00e1squez, Chumpitaz y Jara 2009<\/a>; see also\u00a0Servindi<\/a>). \u00a0The majority also lack adequate reading skills in Spanish.<\/p>\n

With such a deficient system, it is impossible to produce the kind of critical and informed citizens that bolster democracy and drive a more competitive\u00a0economy. \u00a0All presidential candidates recognize this and promise change, but abandon the effort once in office. \u00a0Why is this so? \u00a0 It\u2019s not for lack of good diagnostics, policy proposals or money, because Peru has all of the above. \u00a0 What\u2019s lacking is courage and political skill. \u00a0Courage to confront the bureaucratic inertia and entrenched interests that benefit from the current situation, including a recalcitrant\u00a0union leadership that feeds on the poor working conditions and demoralization of teachers. \u00a0Political skill to rally parents, community leaders and an economic elite that abandoned the public system generations ago and has shown little interest in this cause.<\/p>\n

A year ago I also\u00a0argued that if Humala sincerely wanted an educational revolution, he should give it top priority and lead it like a crusade. \u00a0\u201cMore important that who he names as Minister of Education, the\u00a0President himself should lead\u200b<\/a>\u201d this effort, to invest more money and a lot more attention in the public schools, raise the morale and rewards for good teachers, and retrain or buy out those who don\u00b4t meet the mark.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, to date Humala has followed the path of least resistance. \u00a0 Education has been left in the hands of a technically competent\u00a0but politically weak Education Minister, who suspended a controversial system of merit-based teacher evaluation initiated by the prior administration, but is still working on a convincing alternative. \u00a0Violent teacher strikes in Puno, Ayacucho and elsewhere have shut down schools for long periods, demanding blanket pay increases and various political concessions. \u00a0Because many rural schools began the school year late and their teachers frequently miss class, experts like\u00a0Hugo D\u00edaz<\/a>\u00a0say these kids will end up getting less than a third of the class time to which they are entitled.<\/p>\n

And the Rest of Us?<\/b><\/p>\n

In his first year Humala has presided over positive economic indicators, but has yet to establish a bold vision for this rich\u00a0country, and his political skills leave much to be desired. \u00a0The new Cabinet is comprised of capable professionals who are committed to social inclusion, but also lack the kind of political experience usually\u00a0needed to build reform coalitions, win public opinion and overcome strong resistance. \u00a0This is not surprising in a country where parties are weak and people with other options in life tend to avoid them like the plague. \u00a0 So who will take the lead in this second year? \u00a0Some analysts say popular\u00a0First Lady Nadine Heredia\u200b<\/a>\u00a0is playing that role,\u00a0though that model obviously has its limits.<\/p>\n

And since government alone cannot move this agenda forward, what can the rest of us do \u2013 as universities, media, donors, taxpayers \u2013 to make it our own?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u200b [blockquote source=\u00bbOllanta Humala Tasso, Message to the Nation, July 28, 2012″] \u201cWe have made a lot of mistakes, we are learning within the Government. \u00a0We wanted to move faster on our desired reforms, but understand that everything has a process\u00bb \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b [\/blockquote] Public speaking is not the Peruvian President\u00b4s forte. \u00a0
Leer m\u00e1s…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politica-peruana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=168"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":689,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168\/revisions\/689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.up.edu.pe\/csanborn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}